Tomorrow’s elections represent three possible scenarios for the next general elections. The results will depend on a number of factors and pundits will be dissecting them for weeks, but regardless of the results, the scenarios themselves are compelling.
In Virginia, it’s a pretty standard race of Republican versus Democrat, each supported by his own party. Is the coalition that propelled Obama into the White House effective at supporting other candidates or was this a personal machine? Does the popularity or unpopularity of the Democrat’s policies work for or against Deeds? It doesn’t look good for the left.
In New Jersey, there’s an unpopular governor running against a popular Republican challenger but the third party candidate can be a spoiler. Conventional wisdom says that Daggett will pull votes away from Christie, potentially allowing Corzine to squeak by. This is the nightmare scenario for the right and the dream scenario for the left. If this were to happen on a national level in 2010, it would be disaster for the future of the Republic.
In New York, the radical Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out of a three-way race and actually endorsed Democrat Hughes while the spurned conservative Republican Hoffman ran on a third party ticket to take the lead. If he wins, this is the dream scenario for the right–especially for the Tea Party movement and fiscal conservatives–while it is the nightmare scenario for the left. Is the left so unpopular that they would lose even a three-way race? This time the third party candidate leads.
With McDonnell so far ahead in Virginia, it is doubtful that even the DNC can dig up enough dead and phantom voters to change the outcome in favor of Deeds. A Democratic sweep of all three elections is therefore highly unlikely–but it is still possible for the conservatives to sweep.
The Democrats didn’t listen to the Tea Party protests in the spring, the town halls in the summer, the march on DC in September or the constant phone calls, emails and letters from constituents.
Might November 3rd send them a message they will listen to?
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